15 Minute Foreplay™ Conversation with Tyler Mongan

In this conversation Bronwyn Williams and Tumelo Mojapelo talk to Tyler about neuroscience and the brain as a prediction machine.

Bronwyn Williams: I’m Bronwyn Williams. This is Tumelo Mojapelo. We’re from Flux Trends and we’re busy with something we’re calling 15 minute Foreplay Conversations. So we talked to thought leaders and leaders in the futures and foresight space about some of the most helpful, meaningful models when it comes to thinking about the future. And today we’ve got Tyler with us and we want to ask you, Tyler, can you explain how the brain functions as a prediction machine? 

Tyler Mongan: Sure. Thanks. Thanks for having me on. So there is a principle, we call it free energy out there. And it’s this idea that the brain is trying to constantly predict what’s going to happen in the world based on current models that it has in the brain. And then by sensing the external world, gets information and data and then updates that model. 

And so it’s constantly trying to predict what’s going to happen in the world and then update that model so it uses less energy really mainly though so it has less uncertainty is one of the key concepts, or less surprise. So once, the idea is that the brain wants to make the world more and more certain over time so that it can make better and better predictions. 

Tumelo Mojapelo: So you’re talking about how the brain is trying to deal with this uncertainty in the world. I just want to ask you just to understand clearly. So what you’re basically saying is that we have everything we need in our minds to be able to not predict but apply futures thinking in our everyday context, correct? Am I understanding that correctly? 

Tyler Mongan: That is correct. Yes. And so within I guess the idea is that within the brain we have a lot of different systems that are constantly working. So aside from, like, prediction models of how the brain works, there’s quite a few other models out there. One of the ones I’m looking at has really…, is called the global neuronal workspace model of the brain. And what that model looks at, is, it says there’s five different systems out there that we have inside the brain. The first system is our memory system. The second one is our perception system which we are using in prediction. The third one is our attention system. The fourth is our values or evaluation system. And the final one is anticipatory system. And the idea is all these systems are kind of competing and collaborating to discover what’s the right information or data based on the context and then how we should create a future frame, kind of an image of the future based on that data, whether that be in the immediate present or long term into the future as well.And these future frames are then deciding what types of resources we should allocate to creating that future, what kind of risks and opportunities that are out there. 

And to really, I think at least the models I like to work on, is we need to understand, like, how all those systems are providing data information to make predictions about the future. And it’s not just that there’s one model because each one of the systems kind of has a different model of how it’s seeing the world. So it makes it a little more complex with the brain. 

I think the free energy principle of the brain is kind of a very simple model that we can use and look at as far as being able to predict what’s happening just based on sensory data. I don’t know if it’s robust enough to really get the full picture of what’s happening. I think it really relies on, kind of, a very primitive understanding of the brain. For example, amoebas, which don’t have brains, although some amoeba do eat brains, but they don’t have brains. And they’re basically trying to make predictions about the world through chemotaxis, which is this idea that they’re looking at chemical gradients to decide which ways to go. So not really making so much predictions as they’re just following chemical gradients as a starting point. And then we get more, I guess, robust cognitive functioning over time as we go into animals and then humans. And so I think the predictive model is kind of a, I would say, more of a more primitive model of the brain. 

And I think we need to move into more complex models for really understanding how we think about the future. But also if we want to develop artificial intelligence, machine learning, to a level that can really start to understand the future in a more, I guess, human aligned way. If we just rely on the predictive models of the brain, which is kind of just an anticipatory model in some sense, too, then we’re kind of cutting out a lot of these features of the brain that are also important, for example, our values as humans or how we see ourselves in the future. 

So one of the interesting things is as you start to look into the future and start to imagine yourself in the future and start to make predictions about what happens, is the further into the future you go, the less likely you’re able to understand that future as being your future. And actually as seen as maybe somebody else’s future. And so you start to predict, like, what’s going to happen for somebody else, but then that’s not as relevant to you. Right. So you’re less likely to really be concerned about that future or allocate resources to developing it or taking advantage of the opportunities or avoiding the risks. 

Tumelo Mojapelo: So, I’m so, I want to ask two questions in one. The first is which model then would you advise leaders who are in an uncertain, so, like, a model that needs to use to make decisions and not necessarily short term decisions, long term decisions. And then secondly, how do you bridge the gap between your other self ,because I want to call it that, so your present self and your future self that’s not really someone you can identify with? How do you form a connection in such a way that if you are imagining a future that you’re going to exist in, in the future because I think we’re constantly becoming who we are. Right. How do you maybe create a link or bring that close enough for you to be invested in the decisions that you make for the future because you brought up two…

Tyler Mongan: No problem, great. So the first one on when, like, different models and when to use like maybe just a simple predictive model of the future. You know, I think with that, well, for me, you know, when it comes to reducing surprise or uncertainty in the world, to me, those are just feelings. Right. So uncertainty is just a feeling. I mean, it’s not really a, we call it like a statistical a lot of times or probability maybe, but for me, it’s just a feeling we have. And so when we’re dealing with uncertainty, I think you have to realise we’re dealing with feelings and the brain is also kind of dealing with feelings. Right. It’s like trying to minimise that uncertainty so it feels safe in the world. Right. Or that it can trust its decisions. So I think when you know, when you and also I think what’s interesting too about foresight and futures that we’re actually introducing a lot of uncertainty when we start to explore the future. Right. So the nature of foresight is to engage with uncertainty. So if the model we’re trying to use is just to reduce uncertainty, right, look at the free principle principle model and trying to predict the future and reduce uncertainty, I don’t know if we’re really trying to do foresight so much. Right. Maybe we’re trying to do forecasting a lot of times. 

So I think if you’re trying to do forecasting, and I also would say if you’re trying to do it in the short term, then maybe that prediction model could help you out. Although we have to be careful because you know, just some good research out there. I don’t know if you ever read the book Super Forecasting by Tetlock. Right. In there and he talks about how forecasters are basically as good as dart throwing chimpanzees. Right. So if we’re just, if we’re using foresight just as a predictive mechanism, I don’t know if we’re using it to its fullest capacity and capability. So that’s why we’re working on this model of the global workspace. We think it’s more robust and has a lot of the pieces that we really do need to consider when we’re thinking about how the brain works. You know, and just simply like we look at a story back in I think it was 1950s or so when there was a guy named H.M. I don’t know if you’ve heard of the story of him, but there was a scientist that wanted to research H.M. because H.M. is this patient they call him that had epileptic seizures since she was a little child. And so what he did is the doctor went in and actually started to remove parts of his brain and he removed the hippocampus part. And what they found out was that yes, the epileptic seizures went away, but also H.M. lost his memory. He could basically hold it for maybe five minutes. Okay. So he lost his memory. He was able to actually engage in procedural memory. So he could trace stars over time and he’d get better and better at it, but he couldn’t remember, like, semantic or episodic memories. And also he had a hard time like thinking into the future and he couldn’t imagine himself in the future. He could kind of create these very general understandings of the future, but he could not imagine himself. 

So when we look at that, that kind of history of the brain and how it works, we think the hippocampus is a really important component there. And if you look at it that way, it says that the brain really thinks of the future as three things. The first thing is it sees the future as a memory. So not just episodic memory, but prospective memory as well. And the brain also sees the future as a place. So that actually links into the role of the hippocampus as a navigation tool. And animals, one of the main things they use foresight for is navigation. Kind of predicting an understanding where they’re trying to get to, where resources might be. And the final thing is the future is a feeling. So the hippocampus actually integrates sensory and motor information so that we can kind of feel what the future is like before we make a step or before we move the body. So when we start to look at more robust models, we use this as maybe the foundation of understanding how the brain might think about the future and then we expand and grow from there. And I think this also relies a lot on this piece here. The second part of your question, which is around how do we bridge that gap between our self now in the present and our self in the future, right? Which is, I think, a really important piece that’s kind of missing in a lot of foresight too. It’s understanding the reality that if we just think about the foresight, future generally, it doesn’t connect to us. Then we don’t, our brain does not want to allocate resources to actually create that future. It doesn’t stimulate like a real, like a robust connection between the values and who we think we are as a person and the future we’re trying to create. So it doesn’t register as our future. So I think a lot of the futures we’re creating, we’d even say are kind of disembodied futures. So that our body doesn’t connect with it in any way. 

Sure, mentally we think about it, but it doesn’t have that neurophysiological connection. And really that’s what I think one of the roles of foresight is, is actually to help us create neurophysiological connections to the future. So we are kind of pulled in that future in the sense that we want to allocate resources. We’d rather be in that future than the present moment. But it’s a neurophysiological thing. It’s a resource management, internal resource management component that we’re kind of missing. So to bridge the gap, I think, you know, it’s not only about, like, thinking into the future, but it’s also imagining yourself in the future. And then one of the key components in there is what are the, what are the values that you’re going to have in the future? So that’s one of the key things. Values are, one way to think about values, is they allow for continuity of self over time. Right. 

So, you know, for example, if I imagine myself in the future and I have totally different values, then I’m a totally different person. Right. And I’m going to register that as a totally different person as well. So seeing what, but we have to be able to understand like we, our values are going to change, but we have to understand like how they’re going to change and why that’s still relevant to us now, even though we don’t mind, we might not hold those values. 

And then the other part of it is, is actually taking the time to think into the future a lot and to constantly imagine yourself being in that future and to stimulate as much senses as you can. So doing exercises where you might, like, you’re in that space. So for example, I did a, did some work with Rolls Royce years ago and I said, okay, we don’t know what the innovation is we’re trying to create. Let’s go into the future where that innovation has been created already. And let’s really imagine ourselves there. And instead of focusing on the innovation, we focused on the place we were in, because that’s going to stimulate certain neurons that we need to stimulate. It’s going to start to stimulate the sensory motor system as well. Let’s walk around. What do we see? What are we feeling? And then from that space or that place and the connection to the sensory motor system, then new ideas might start to emerge. 

Tumelo Mojapelo: Thank you so much. 

Tyler Mongan:I think the key thing is, yeah, I think the key thing then is we’re actually more connected to that future than and our future self is actually there. 

Tumelo Mojapelo: I like that you’re bringing in the five senses because in, since memory is your five senses and also some values, I mean, you’re not going to carry all your values. So maybe the most core value that you’ll have to bridge, the gap between your present self and your future self. Thank you so much for your time and your insight. We really appreciate it. For those who are following us, please stay tuned ,to continue to subscribe and join us for more 15 minute four play conversations. Thank you. Thank you, Tyler. 

Tyler Mongan: Thank you Tumi. Thank you, Bronwyn.

By Flux Trends 

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